Ottawa Real Estate Market Update: January 2025
Happy New Year! We hope your holidays were filled with joy, and welcome back to an all-new season of the Ottawa Real Estate Market Update! This monthly deep dive into Ottawa’s housing market is where stats meet humor, as we tackle trends, share insights, and maybe even predict the future of real estate.
This month’s update is special—it’s time for our annual “semi-bold” predictions for the year ahead! But first, let’s look back at how our 2024 predictions held up, followed by a review of December’s real estate stats.
So grab a coffee, and let’s dive in!
Ottawa Real Estate in December 2024
Freehold Market Overview
December is traditionally a slow month for real estate, and 2024 was no exception. Ottawa saw 385 freehold homes sold, a sharp drop from November’s 704 sales but a 10% increase compared to the past two Decembers. Notably, this year’s December total falls on the higher end of historical trends for the month.
The average selling price of freehold homes hit an all-time December high at $760,000, up from $732,000 in December 2023. This marked a clear year-over-year increase in property values—a positive sign as we move into 2025.
When analyzing market conditions, typical metrics like inventory, sales-to-new-listings ratios, and average time to sell were skewed by the season. December closed with 3.1 months of inventory, an average selling time of 45 days, and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 122%. While these stats suggest a "seller's market," the data also reflects a broader lack of supply.
Condo Market Highlights
The condo market saw 162 units sold in December, a 15% increase over December 2023 and a nearly 30% rise from December 2022. However, this total remains on the lower end of Ottawa’s historical December sales range.
The average condo price in December was $428,000, a figure that continues Ottawa’s long-standing trend of flat condo prices over the past two years. While freehold values surged, the condo market has remained consistent, with monthly averages hovering between $410,000 and $455,000 since mid-2022.
Inventory and time-to-sell metrics for condos also indicated balance: December ended with 4 months of inventory and an average time to sell of 42 days. Though these stats fall into balanced territory, a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 87% hints at underlying seller strength.
Reflecting on 2024’s Predictions
In January 2024, we shared 10 “semi-bold” predictions for the year. Here’s how they turned out:
- Interest Rates: We predicted stable and slightly lower rates, with a net reduction of 1-1.5%. The Bank of Canada exceeded expectations with a 1.75% total cut, marking a near hit.
- Sales Totals: A prediction of 16,000–17,000 homes sold fell just short with 15,500 sales.
- Condo Popularity: A forecasted surge in condo sales did not materialize—condos made up just 22.7% of total residential sales, a decline from 2023.
- Freehold Strength: Freehold inventory stayed below 4 months for the entire year, meeting expectations, while average prices held above $700,000 for 11 out of 12 months.
Final score? Two correct, several near misses, and a few outright flops. But hey, it’s all part of the fun!
Semi-Bold Predictions for 2025
Let’s look ahead! Here are 12 “semi-bold” predictions for Ottawa’s real estate market in 2025:
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Interest Rate Dynamics: The 5-year variable mortgage rate will remain below the fixed rate throughout 2025.
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Rate Movements: The Bank of Canada will both cut and raise rates during the year, with a net reduction of 0.5–1%.
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Sales Volume Growth: Ottawa will surpass 13,500 total home sales, up from 11,737 in 2024.
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Freehold Market Boom: Freehold properties will dominate sales, reducing the percentage share of condos.
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Condo Prices Steady: Average condo prices will remain flat, with no record-breaking months.
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High Freehold Averages: Freehold prices will stay above $750,000 for at least 10 months.
These predictions aim to balance optimism with realism, offering a lens into potential market shifts.
Closing Thoughts
As we kick off 2025, Ottawa’s real estate market continues to show resilience. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply curious about market trends, we’re here to help.
If you have questions or need personalized advice, don’t hesitate to reach out. And if you enjoyed this update, share it with friends or drop a comment below with your own predictions for the year ahead.
Here’s to a prosperous 2025 in Ottawa real estate!
